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This time, Mr Hollande has urged unity, and reached out to his defeated rival. Like the Labour Party ahead of Britain's 1997 general election,doudoune north face homme, the French Socialists seem to be so fed up with losing elections that they will do whatever it takes to win. The last presidential election they won was in 1988.
One is that Mr Hollande now has to try to reconcile the left wing of his party, represented by Mr Montebourg, with the social-democratic middle. He needs the left-wingers if only to stave off a far-left threat from outside the party, where a grumpy anti-establishment politician, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, enjoys support.
Beside Mr Hollande stood a grinning Arnaud Montebourg, whose protectionist campaign for “deglobalisation” secured him a surprise 17%, and third place, in the , and even Ségolène Royal, Mr Hollande&#39,Related Theme Articles:
;s former partner and mother of their four children, who was beaten into fourth place in the first round with just 7%.
Although all polls suggest that Mr Hollande would beat Mr Sarkozy hands down were the presidential vote held today—one this month gave him 60% next to Mr Sarkozy's 40%—there are plenty of obstacles in the way.
Mr Sarkozy will doubtless make much of the inexperience of Mr Hollande, who has never held a ministerial job. Mr Hollande will point to rising debt and deficits on Mr Sarkozy's watch. In the end, the choice will be only partly political: it will also be between a big hyperactive personality with experience but mixed results, and a largely charisma-free alternative in Mr Hollande, who campaigns as a “normal” candidate. After the whirlwind of Mr Sarkozy, that could just be what voters want,ブランドバッグ 激安.
Mr Sarkozy, who has yet to declare his candidacy, has been notably absent from the airwaves in recent months. Once he throws in his hat officially, the poll gap between the two politicians could narrow, not least because the president is a formidable campaigner.
THE decisive victory of Fran?ois Hollande at the Socialist Party primary yesterday marks the start of the countdown to France's 2012 presidential election. A former party leader and long-time apparatchik, Mr Hollande secured 57% of the vote, next to 43% for his rival, Martine Aubry, the mayor of Lille,バーバリーセール. His nomination was backed by all four of the defeated first-round candidates, and the margin of victory was clear, raising hopes among left-wing voters that he will be able to unify the party around his candidacy.
For another, the Socialists now seem set to rally behind Mr Hollande, an instinctive consensus-seeker. Last time round, when Ms Royal won the primary to become the Socialists' 2007 presidential candidate, the party was deeply divided, and she led her somewhat solitary election campaign from outside the party hierarchy.
The second reason for the rally is the idea that Europe has got its act together. The mood music has been good but it is still all about intentions, rather than details. The banks will be recapitalised but how?. Greek debt will be written down but by how much and who will take the hit? The EFSF will be expanded but how? At the moment, it seems clear the ECB will not turn on the monetary taps to start this process. If that requires the euro-zone countries to stand behind the fund, will the extra debt load cause some countries (notably France) to lose their AAA rating?
There seem to be two reasons for the rally. The first is some genuine good news; US economic data have been looking a bit better, whether it was the non-farm payrolls, ISM survey, vehicle sales or even today's retail sales. Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts for Q3 growth up to an annualised 2.5%. Given that there were worries about an imminent recession in September, risky assets understandably perked up.
The Socialist primary exercise has put the party in extraordinarily buoyant mood. For one thing, turn-out, already high in the first round, was even stronger yesterday, with 2.8m votes cast by left-leaning voters. This has lent the party a fresh, modern air.
In a telling image broadcast live last night, Mr Hollande embraced Ms Aubry and each of the defeated first-round candidates before cheering crowds outside the Socialist headquarters on the Paris left bank. It was a carefully orchestrated show of unity, after a campaign that had exposed not only ideological but personal differences among the candidates.
Europe's underlying problems will remain; some uncompetitive countries locked into a fixed exchange rate,Related Theme Articles:
, a debt load that may be comparable with the US but with much worse demography than America, and a very sluggish long-term growth rate. Rearranging the debt burden will not make all these problems go away.
WHILE equity markets are quite subdued today, they have staged a very decent rally from their levels earlier this month; the S&P 500 is up and is now around the middle of its 52-week range.
Yet Mr Hollande also needs to appeal to the centre if he is to pick up voters disillusioned with Mr Sarkozy. This will mean some complicated political gymnastics, and will expose him to a charge of incoherence that the right has already identified,Polo Ralph Lauren. During the primary campaign, Mr Hollande called in one breath for ambitious deficit-reduction and in another for the creation of up to 70,000 new teaching jobs.
In the end, Mr Hollande benefited from his poll lead as favourite both to win the nomination, and to beat Nicolas Sarkozy, the incumbent president, in next spring's election. Mr Montebourg, who took great delight between the first and second rounds in playing an extravagant courtship game with the two finalists, finally announced that he would vote for Mr Hollande—but only because he looked the better-placed to win the presidency. Mr Hollande has topped such polls ever since Dominique Strauss-Kahn,Polo Ralph Lauren, the former IMF managing director, was excluded from the race after his in New York on sexual-assault charges that were later ,Related Theme Articles:
,The North Face.
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